Cognitive biases and heuristics
Heuristics are normal simplifications by which the mind saves effort. A bias arises where the shortcut leads to a systematically wrong judgement. The labels below help notice the shortcut and check it.
These labels help observe how the mind takes quick shortcuts when judging people, events and probabilities. Heuristics are normal simplifications; a bias arises when the shortcut leads to a systematically wrong judgement. A single thought is not a diagnosis or a personality trait.
A catalogue of 12 cognitive biases and heuristics. Each is not a diagnosis or a personality trait, but an invitation to gently check whether a quick shortcut is leading to a wrong judgement.
Anchoring effect
The first number or estimate encountered, even a random one, shifts subsequent judgements in its direction.
Availability heuristic
The probability or frequency of an event is judged by how easily vivid examples come to mind.
Confirmation bias
We seek and notice what confirms an already formed opinion, while disconfirming evidence passes by or gets discounted.
False consensus effect
The share of people who share our views, habits or reactions is overestimated; «everyone does that» — where «everyone» is us and our circle.
Framing effect
The same decision is judged differently depending on how its consequences are framed — as a gain or as a loss.
Fundamental attribution error
Other people's actions are explained by their character, while our own are explained by circumstances; the same behaviour in oneself and in another gets different causes.
Halo effect
One salient quality of a person (appearance, success, charm) colours the assessment of all their other qualities in the same direction.
Hindsight bias
Once the result is known, it feels that it was obvious in advance, although before the event the forecast was uncertain.
Illusion of transparency
It feels as if one's internal state — anxiety, irritation, joy — is obvious to those around, although outwardly it shows much less.
Representativeness heuristic
Membership in a category or a probability is judged by how closely a description resembles the typical image of that category.
Spotlight effect
It feels as if those around us notice and judge our mistakes and appearance far more than they actually do.
Survivorship bias
A conclusion is drawn from those who «survived» or achieved the result, without taking into account those who acted the same way but did not reach it.