cognitive bias / heuristic

Anchoring effect

This is not a diagnosis or a personality trait. A heuristic is a normal shortcut of the mind; a bias arises where it leads to a systematically wrong judgement. If you recognise yourself here, it is an invitation to gently check rather than to label yourself.

What it is

The first number or estimate encountered, even a random one, shifts subsequent judgements in its direction.

How it arises and is maintained

The mind starts the estimate from the first available value and adjusts it insufficiently. The distortion arises when the «anchor» — random or irrelevant — still shifts the result. It is sustained because starting from a ready number is simpler than building an estimate from zero, and the adjustment is usually too small.

How it may look

  • «The seller named a high price — the final one seems «a good deal», although it is above yours.»
  • «The first diagnosis from the internet shifts the assessment of symptoms in its direction.»

Soft signs in yourself

  • The first number named sticks in the head during the assessment.
  • It is hard to start the estimate «from a blank page», without reference to what was heard.
  • The adjustment from the first value feels sufficient, although it is small.
  • After someone else's forecast, your own estimate shifts in its direction.

Questions for a Socratic dialogue

  1. What value am I leaning on right now — and what is it based on?
  2. If I had not heard this number, how would I have judged?
  3. How much is the first estimate actually related to the task?
  4. What changes if I deliberately start the estimate from zero?

Self-directed exercise

Drop the anchor

  1. Write down the estimate and the first value you leaned on.
  2. Assess how much the first value is related to the task.
  3. Build the estimate from zero, without reference to what was heard.
  4. Compare the two estimates and pick the one based on the facts of the task.

Core beliefs it may be linked to

  • ««The first number is a landmark».»
  • ««Adjusting enough means estimating anew».»
  • ««If everyone thinks so, it must mean something».»
  • ««Without an external landmark I cannot cope».»